The Belgian Minister of Defense Pieter De Crem has recently mentioned the risk that Kaddafi could use chemical weapons against his own population. This announcement came few weeks after a similar call done by the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in March (1). Nevertheless, this possibility should be nuanced.

Despite the destruction of more than half of its mustard gas stockpile, Libya still possesses 11.25 metric tons of this chemical weapon.

The destruction of all the 3 563 unfilled munitions and devices, under the supervision of the Organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons (2) , has seriously weakened the Libyan capacity to optimally use these weapons. However, Kaddafi could use aircrafts and helicopters in order to spread chemical agents but the no-fly zone, established by the UN Security Council Resolution 1973, should prevent this possibility.

A second constraint on the use of these chemical weapons is the fact that the storage sites are monitored by the Western spy satellites.

It is also important to keep an eye on the possibility that some of the Libyan chemical weapons could be diverted by non-state arms groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

(1). « Clinton to meet Libyan rebels », Aljazeera, 10th March 2011.

(2). Libya ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention of the 5th February 2004. According to this treaty, Libya should dismantle all chemical weapons of the category 1 (mustard gas, sarin gas and Vx) for the 15th May 2011.

Key words: Libya, chemical weapons, mustard gas.

Photo: Pallets of artillery shells containing mustard gas.